Managing Climate Variability

Drought Isn't About Rainfall

Jeff, Larraine and Oliver Hoffman
Lockhart, New South Wales

  • 470mm average rainfall
  • 1,100 hectares
  • Producing canola, wheat, pulses, merino sheep and cattle

Jeff Hoffman integrates drought into all of his management strategies, with the knowledge of 112 years of local rainfall records under his belt.

While analysing the records helped him pin down the best time to sow his annual crop to an April May autumn break, the one-in-10 year recorded drought (heralded by a later June break) led him to regard drought as a normal part of his landscape rather than an aberration.

Jeff uses Australian Rainman and monitors the Southern Oscillation Index as a loose predictor of rain but still relies on the 'knowns'-pasture growth, soil moisture, stored hay and livestock price-to firm up a management plan.

Jeff Hoffman near a field of canola on his property


Climate Management Tools Used

  • More than 100 years of rainfall records entered into Excel and analysed.
  • Understanding of what defines an autumn break and when it occurs based on historic records.
  • Watching winter SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) movements to predict spring rainfall.
  • Use of Rainman software.
  • Bureau of Meteorology weather by fax service.
  • Integrating climate information with other indicators to make profitable decisions.
  • Building a robust system that expects and can withstand drought.
  • Flexible decision making based on indicators for optimism or pessimism each season.

Complete 2004 Story (pdf 114 Kb)

Complete 1999 Story