Managing Climate Variability
Keeping Faith with Forecasts

Brett and Fran Francis
Kimba, South Australia

  • 325mm average rainfall
  • 2,000 hectares
  • Producing mainly wheat with some barley peas canola and merino sheep.

Brett Francis makes major cropping decisions early in the season, and uses a commercial 15month outlook to help him plan his crops.

If an average season is predicted he may sow two thirds of the property; if a poor season is forecast ,and depending on grain prices, he may sow only one third.

Cautious and conservative, Brett still refers to the past 30 years of rainfall and wheat yield data - it shows him what yields were achieved under certain rainfall conditions and gives him a benchmark for his own performance.

As Brett's knowledge grows so does his confidence. And while the forecast doesn't get it right every month, he sees the value in paying for the best information he can get.

francis-family-200-pix.jpg

Climate Management Tools Used

  • Long range (15 month) weather forecasts from a commercial source.
  • 30 years of historic rainfall data and seasonal yields.
  • Analysis of early season rainfall patterns and comparisons to past years.
  • Choice of three cropping scenarios for poor average or good rainfall seasons.
  • Decisions about crop types and amount of land cropped made by cut off dates relating to rainfall received.

Complete 2004 Story (pdf 138 Kb)

Complete 1999 Story