Most growers understand that the main management strategy to minimise heat events is to optimise the flowering window through sowing time and variety choice. The challenge is to characterise this risk in terms of likelihood and consequence. We investigated the meteorology and climatology of spring heat events on the southern grains wheat belt and developed a risk-management package for growers.

There is a more direct link between the remote climate drivers and the synoptic systems that produce rainfall. The mechanism of atmospheric blocking, which strongly affects cut-off lows, is more complicated than previously understood. POAMA’s representation of the Rossby wave teleconnection process is inaccurate. Its representation of this teleconnection pathway appears to have shifted to the east, which may help explain why skill is decreased in south-east Australia.