Most growers understand that the main management strategy to minimise heat events is to optimise the flowering window through sowing time and variety choice. The challenge is to characterise this risk in terms of likelihood and consequence. We investigated the meteorology and climatology of spring heat events on the southern grains wheat belt and developed a risk-management package for growers.
We mproved our understanding of the variability and changing nature of frost risk at both seasonal and decadal scales for the southern regions of Australia, and benchmarked implications for the wine and grain industries.
There is a more direct link between the remote climate drivers and the synoptic systems that produce rainfall. The mechanism of atmospheric blocking, which strongly affects cut-off lows, is more complicated than previously understood. POAMA’s representation of the Rossby wave teleconnection process is inaccurate. Its representation of this teleconnection pathway appears to have shifted to the east, which may help explain why skill is decreased in south-east Australia.
Management practices being promoted to Queensland sugarcane growers have been found to reduce nitrogen loss from the paddock by 66%, even under future climate change scenarios.
Deliver a set of next-generation user-friendly climate risk management tools that farmers can easily access to query weather data.
Quantify the extremes and impact of frost and heat stress on the Western Australia wheat belt.
Link with the frost and heat-stress projects underway in South Australia and Victoria to improve understanding of frost and heat stress across southern Australia.
Develop new multi-week rainfall forecasting tools and make them available on the Bureau of Meteorology’s Water and The Land website.
Experimental multi-week forecast products are now available on the Bureau’s POAMA website.
The climate drivers for New South Wales, the Northern Territory and Tasmania have been analysed and documented and are published on Climate Kelpie.
The climate drivers for South Australia, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland have been revised and the changes have been published on Climate Kelpie.
Further research on the use of the 20CRP data for agricultural insurance and seasonal forecasting is needed as development of the database continues.