Completed projects

Can advances in mid-term weather forecasts reduce emissions from nitrogen fertiliser?

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

Research objectives Develop a framework for using scientific advances in climate forecasts to guide nitrogen fertiliser decisions in farming systems, to increase productivity and minimise nitrous oxide emissions. Apply the framework to case studies in the grains, dairy and sugar industries using simulation modelling to evaluate any effects of informed nitrogen fertiliser decisions. Document the

POAMA seasonal forecast value

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

Research objective Determine the value of POAMA multi-week and seasonal forecasts in informing management decisions in the cotton and wheat industries in eastern Australia, and the extensive rangelands grazing industry in northern Australia. Communicate the use of seasonal forecasts in terms of probabilities, risk and payoff times, to ensure a realistic level of expectation of

MCV Climate Champion program

Friday, May 6th, 2016

The MCV Climate Champion program aims to help farmers manage climate risk. 20 Australian farmers from around Australia, representing most major agricultural commodities, currently take part in the program.

Economic analysis of investment in MCV Phases II, III and IV (ex-post)

Friday, August 7th, 2015

This projected conducted an economic evaluation (benefit–cost analysis) of MCV’s investment for years ending 30 June 2009 to 2016. Of the benefits identified in the evaluation, the principal benefit was a general increase in farm profits. The total investment of $24.1 million in present value was estimated to produce total gross benefits of $160.3 million in present value, providing a net present value of $136.2 million. The benefit–cost ratio was 6.64 to 1 and the internal rate of return was 48.2%.

Economic analysis of future MCV investment (ex-ante)

Friday, August 7th, 2015

The project assessed the potential economic returns of investing a further 5 years of research and development in the MCV program, Phase V. The total investment of $13.5 million in present value was estimated to produce total benefits of $105.5 million in present value, providing a net present value of $92.0 million. The rate of return was also high, including a benefit–cost ratio of 7.8 to 1 (over 30 years, using a 5% discount rate) and an internal rate of return of 46%.

Analysis of benefits from improved seasonal forecasting

Sunday, February 22nd, 2015

The potential value of improved seasonal climate forecasts for the agricultural sector is significant, and much greater than for other sectors in the economy. With even more climate variability expected under climate change, The Centre for International Economics expects that value to increase.

Predictions of heat extremes on multi-week to seasonal timescales

Sunday, February 22nd, 2015

Researchers investigated the ability of POAMA to predict climate drivers which lead extreme heat over Australia, from multi-week to seasonal forecast timescales, and created experimental forecast products.

Improving forecast accuracy with improved Indian Ocean initialisation

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

We included new ocean observations in predictions of the model for Indian Ocean Dipole development and accounted for ocean–atmosphere coupling. We compared the skill with other international models. We trialled several initialisation improvements, which is believed to be leading-edge research. Real-time analysis products are now available on the POAMA website.

Northern Australia monsoon prediction

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

The North Australian Wet Season Onset webpages has a brief description of the project details and can be found at the POAMA Experimental website. The new wet season onset webpage for real-time forecasts is now also available. This project aimed to improve the simulation and the prediction by rainfall-related products for agriculture in tropical Australia, focusing on wet-season onset and on monsoon bursts and breaks.

Assessing and managing heat stress in cereals

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Most growers understand that the main management strategy to minimise heat events is to optimise the flowering window through sowing time and variety choice. The challenge is to characterise this risk in terms of likelihood and consequence. We investigated the meteorology and climatology of spring heat events on the southern grains wheat belt and developed a risk-management package for growers.