Analysis of benefits from improved seasonal forecasting

Research objective

Estimate the potential value of improved seasonal climate forecasts for 11 sectors of Australia’s economy, including agriculture.

Project completion

April 2013

Outcomes

The potential value of improved seasonal climate forecasts for the agricultural sector is significant, and much greater than for other sectors in the economy.

With even more climate variability expected under climate change, The Centre for International Economics expects that value to increase.

Forecasts are likely to be of greatest value in areas of high climate variability.

The value of improved seasonal forecasts for the agriculture sector depends on a wide range of complex and interrelated factors. Some climate-related loss in production is inevitable.

The value that improved seasonal climate forecasts bring to the agriculture sector is likely to have flow-on benefits and multiplier effects for rural communities. An increase in farmer incomes and a decrease in income variability are generally beneficial for local communities.

While it is clear that the benefits of improved seasonal climate forecasts are significant for the agriculture sector, further work is needed to be able to fully quantify these benefits. Future work should endeavour to quantify the value of seasonal forecasts to livestock operations and to a wider range of management practices.

Download the fact sheets and full reports:

Research contact

The Centre for International Economics

cie@thecie.com.au

Phone: 02 6245 7800

You may also like...