Improving multi-week predictions

Research objective

Improve POAMA’s weather predictions 2–8 weeks ahead to make them more useful to agriculture and water-management industries.

Project duration

2009 – 2012

Outcomes

This project investigated the use of the Bureau’s seasonal forecast system, POAMA, to provide forecasts on timescales and lead-times shorter than seasonal.

This would fill the prediction capability gap between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks.

POAMA shows promising skill in forecasting multi-week rainfall and temperature over Australia, and scientists now have a better understanding of the large-scale climate drivers that affect multi-week forecast skill.

POAMA was upgraded to better suit multi-week forecasting. The resulting forecasts are more skilful and reliable.

This upgrade also improved the reliability of seasonal forecasts.

Experimental multi-week forecast products are available on the POAMA website.

Research contact

Dr Debbie Hudson

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

D.Hudson@bom.gov.au

Phone: 03 9669 4796

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