Improve POAMA’s weather predictions 2–8 weeks ahead to make them more useful to agriculture and water-management industries.
2009 – 2012
This project investigated the use of the Bureau’s seasonal forecast system, POAMA, to provide forecasts on timescales and lead-times shorter than seasonal.
This would fill the prediction capability gap between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks.
POAMA shows promising skill in forecasting multi-week rainfall and temperature over Australia, and scientists now have a better understanding of the large-scale climate drivers that affect multi-week forecast skill.
POAMA was upgraded to better suit multi-week forecasting. The resulting forecasts are more skilful and reliable.
This upgrade also improved the reliability of seasonal forecasts.
Experimental multi-week forecast products are available on the POAMA website.
Dr Debbie Hudson
Phone: 03 9669 4796