Improving seasonal forecasts for south-west Western Australia

Research objective

Increase the accuracy and value of seasonal forecasts for farmers in south-west Western Australia.

Project duration

2008 – 2011

Outcomes

We have improved our forecasting skill at using the Indian Ocean as a climate driver.

Our APSIM modelling work has shown the trade-off between sowing date and frost risk. This indicates that frost forecasts may only be of value in areas where there is small yield potential with delayed sowing and where there is a high frost risk.

We also found that the risk of frost is significantly affected when there are large monthly or seasonal temperature deviations during a particularly warm or cold season.

Research contact

Dr Senthold Asseng

CSIRO

Senthold.Asseng@csiro.au

Phone: 08 9333 6615

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