Climate forecasting research

We are funding climate science projects aimed at improving the skill and value of climate forecasts and outlooks, particularly from multi-week to intra-seasonal periods.

Projects will focus on issues of specific interest to agriculture, such as forecasting extreme events (for example, droughts, heatwaves and frosts) and investing in improved modelling capability.

Increasing POAMA’s seasonal forecast value

Thursday, February 23rd, 2017

Research objective In a study by Asseng et al. (2012) based in the wheat industry region of WA, it was shown that POAMA had 70% skill at predicting above/below median rainfall. It showed that adjusting starting nitrogen based on this forecast could increase a farmer’s gross margin by 71% on a typical farm on clay

Improving the skill of regional forecasts in the POAMA-3 model

Friday, May 6th, 2016

Create more skilful multi-week seasonal forecasts of Australian climate at regional scales. We will measure how much POAMA-3 forecast skill has improved from POAMA-2. We will identify priority areas to improve POAMA, then trial them in POAMA-3. By conducting hindcasts, we will test the improvements for Australian regional forecast skill and ready them to be incorporated into POAMA-3.