Climate forecasting research

We are funding climate science projects aimed at improving the skill and value of climate forecasts and outlooks, particularly from multi-week to intra-seasonal periods.

Projects will focus on issues of specific interest to agriculture, such as forecasting extreme events (for example, droughts, heatwaves and frosts) and investing in improved modelling capability.

Increasing POAMA’s seasonal forecast value

Friday, May 6th, 2016

Establish a realistic level of confidence and knowledge in how to use, and the value of using, seasonal forecasts based on POAMA to make decisions in cotton and wheat enterprises in eastern Australia. Increase producers’ ability to include probabilistic seasonal forecast information in their risk-management business decisions for a long-term payoff period (5-20 years).

Improving the skill of regional forecasts in the POAMA-3 model

Friday, May 6th, 2016

Create more skilful multi-week seasonal forecasts of Australian climate at regional scales. We will measure how much POAMA-3 forecast skill has improved from POAMA-2. We will identify priority areas to improve POAMA, then trial them in POAMA-3. By conducting hindcasts, we will test the improvements for Australian regional forecast skill and ready them to be incorporated into POAMA-3.